'As our per capita income increases and various demographic segments emerge, the need for various kinds of protection and risk covers will become even more explicit.'
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday said its board has approved a dividend payment of Rs 30,307 crore to the government for the financial ended March 2022. The board approved the transfer of Rs 30,307 crore as surplus to the central government for the accounting year 2021-22 while deciding to maintain the Contingency Risk Buffer at 5.50 per cent, RBI said in a statement. The decision on the dividend payment was made in the 596th meeting of the Central Board of Directors of RBI, headed by Governor Shaktikanta Das, held on Friday.
The RBI's policy decision would be the major event driving trading sentiment in the equity market this week, while global cues, foreign funds movement and crude oil prices will be the other key factors to watch out for, analysts said. Markets have been witnessing a rebound recently. However, the move lacks decisiveness amid lingering challenges like global policy tightening due to soaring inflation and geopolitical tensions, they added. "RBI policy, global macro numbers and crude oil prices will set the trend for this week.
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Steps announced by new RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan could attract $10 billion of forex inflows in the next three months and this could be a material near-term positive for the rupee, which has lost 20 per cent since January, the London-based banking and financial services company said.
Higher for longer' may be the narrative in the developed markets, but interest rates might not stay high for very long in India, with a section of the market expecting rate cuts to begin this year. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 6.5 per cent in the April review - after hiking the policy repo rate in six previous meetings. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das emphasised that the pause was only for the April policy and that the central bank was ready to act if the situation demanded.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday described cryptocurrencies as "clear danger" and said that anything that derives value based on make believe, without any underlying, is just speculation under a sophisticated name. The government is in the process of finalising a consultation paper on cryptocurrencies after gathering inputs from various stakeholders and institutions. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been flagging concerns about cryptocurrencies, which are seen as a highly speculative asset.
'...to bring the Global South and others to the negotiating table on the basis of Gandhi's non-violence so that we can leave a safer world for our children.'
'Indian equity valuations, although not very expensive, are not cheap either.'
The Indian economy recovered from the Covid-induced downturn during 2022 and is poised for further improvement in the coming quarters though downside risks emanating from geopolitical tensions, strengthening dollar and elevated inflation will continue. The positive trajectory in the growth trend and improved fundamentals will help the nation in neutralising the impact of global headwinds which are expected to have a bearing on the country's exports in the months to come. The challenges before the government and the Reserve Bank in the new year would be to arrest inflation, check declining value of rupee against US dollar and promote private investment and growth, with a view to ensure that the country remains one the fastest growing major economies of the world.
Investors are showing some interest in the downstream energy cycle. Refiners and marketers, especially the public sector (PSU) oil marketing companies (OMCs) could see a revival of marketing margins. Lower crude oil and gas prices may also improve margins in industries like paints, logistics, synthetic fabrics, plastics, and fertilisers. In the medium-term, however, there could be a supply overhang affecting OMCs as new refining capacities are scheduled to be commissioned, especially in China, and this may lead to a drop in the refining margins as capacity would be surplus to demand until and unless there's a pick-up in global growth.
Historically, tensions in West Asian regions have provided support to gold prices.
Indices across Indian equity markets have edged towards new record highs before undergoing a small correction in the past few sessions. The National Stock Exchange Nifty has gained 20 per cent in the past year; mid-caps (up 33 per cent), small-caps (up 31 per cent), and micro-caps (up 44 per cent) have done better. Several factors have precipitated this rally.
Sanjay Mookim, India equity strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, tells Puneet Wadhwa that this is not a time for investors to dabble in relatively small and illiquid stocks.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday expressed hope that G20 will draw inspiration from the vibrancy of the Indian economy and work towards bringing back stability, confidence and growth on the global landscape.
The country's GDP grew at the fastest pace in seven quarters at 7.7 per cent in the January-March period, retaining the fastest growing major economy tag on robust performance by manufacturing and service sectors as well as good farm output.
'We must understand that the LAC is a political issue for China, so any action on the LAC will keep India focussed on the LAC which gives China the opportunity for any adventurism in the Indian Ocean.'
'The Indian economy is in slowdown and growth may stay slow,' notes Devangshu Datta.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday retained its growth projection at 7.2 per cent for the current fiscal on the back of improvement in urban demand and gradual recovery in rural India. Unveiling the third monetary policy for the current fiscal, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Indian economy remained resilient, and the central bank will continue to support growth. The RBI expects growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal at 16.2 per cent, which will taper to 4 per cent by the fourth quarter.
Retail inflation softened to 6.71 per cent in July due to moderation in food prices but remained above the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 6 per cent for the seventh consecutive month. With retail inflation continuing to remain high despite a fall in prices of vegetables and edible oils, among other commodities in July, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might go for another rate hike in September. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was at 7.01 per cent in June and 5.59 per cent in July 2021. It was above 7 per cent from April to June this fiscal.
The RBI on Friday retained inflation forecast for FY23 at 6.7 per cent amid uncertain price trajectory on "geopolitical shocks" and on hope that inflationary pressures would ease with pick-up in kharif sowing and supply chain improvements. In its previous monetary policy review in June, it had projected retail inflation for 2022-23 at 6.7 per cent, higher from 5.7 per cent forecast in April. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to raise the benchmark repo rate by a steep 50 basis points to 5.40 per cent with immediate effect to tame inflation while supporting growth.
Dalal Street investors became richer by more than Rs 16.36 lakh crore this year as the equity market scaled new highs despite persistent geopolitical uncertainties and inflation worries. Analysts attributed better macroeconomic fundamentals, the confidence of retail investors and foreign investors investing again in the domestic equities towards the latter half of 2022 as the key factors that led to the outperformance of the Indian market in comparison to many other stock markets worldwide. During the initial part of the year, markets were jolted by the Russia-Ukraine war.
Heavy dollar selling by banks and exporters alongside debt-related inflows largely supported the rupee
Canada's allegations of India's involvement in the killing of a Sikh separatist in Surrey that sparked a diplomatic row between the two nations are based on both human and signals intelligence and inputs from an ally from Ottawa's Five Eye intelligence network, a media report has said citing the Canadian government sources.
Fund mobilisation by companies through equity and debt routes has dropped 20 per cent in 2022 to nearly Rs 11 lakh crore, as exuberance dwindled this year due to expensive credit avenues and volatile markets. The first half of 2023 could continue to remain challenging. The year 2021 was extraordinary for fundraising from the equity and debt routes, while 2022 has seen a slowdown in capital raising owing to elevated volatility provoked by unprecedented inflation globally and the Russia-Ukraine war.
Following are the highlights of the RBI's first monetary policy statement of 2022-23 unveiled by Governor Shaktikanta Das: Policy repo rate unchanged at 4%; marginal standing facility rate & bank rate too remain unchanged at 4.25%. Monetary stance to be accommodative with focus on withdrawal of accommodation to keep inflation within target. GDP growth projection for FY'23 slashed to 7.2% from 7.8%; growth projections based on assumption of crude oil (Indian basket) price at $100 a barrel during FY'23. Inflation forecast hiked to 5.7% for FY'23 from 4.5%.
After withdrawing record funds in 2021-22, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continued their sell-off in the last fiscal too and pulled out Rs 37,631 crore from Indian equities amid aggressive rate hikes by central banks globally. The outflow trend is likely to reverse in the current financial year since India has the best growth potential in the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said. Market analysts believe that FPI flows in the current financial year would be decided by a host of factors, such as the US Federal Reserve's policy stance, oil prices movement and development in the geopolitical situation.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday slashed India's growth forecast for 2022-23 (FY23) by 80 basis points to 7.4 per cent, citing less favourable external conditions and rapid policy tightening by the central bank. In its update to the April World Economic Outlook, the IMF said that though a global recession in 2022 was ruled out with a growth estimate of 3.2 per cent, the balance of risks was squarely to the downside, driven by a wide range of factors that could adversely affect the global economic performance. "The risk of recession is particularly prominent in 2023, when in several economies growth is expected to bottom out, household savings accumulated during the pandemic will have declined, and even small shocks could cause economies to stall.
Rising for the fourth straight day, benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty settled marginally higher after a choppy session on Friday, tracking mixed global trends amid uncertainties on the geopolitical front. The BSE Sensex opened weak and declined 414.44 points to 55,049.95 in opening deals. But within minutes, it pared all its losses and jumped 369.56 points to 55,833.95. Facing volatility, the index finally settled at 55,550.30, higher by 85.91 points or 0.15 per cent.
Indian policymakers are almost alone, alongside the United States, in seeking a hard and multi-sectoral global decoupling from China in the expectation that it will boost their economies, observes Mihir S Sharma.
Given the prevailing uncertainties, investors must maintain a 10-15 per cent allocation to gold in 2023.
'India has the potential to do a lot more to take advantage of the time today where we stand to gain, geopolitically and in terms of market attractiveness.'
Heightened geopolitical uncertainties will lead the Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel to opt for a status quo at the next week's meeting, Axis Bank's chief economist Saugata Bhattacharya said on Monday. Bhattacharya said he had earlier expected a tightening action at the policy meet scheduled for April 6-8 but the increased uncertainties on the geopolitical front due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its impact on commodity prices makes him now think that RBI will defer such an action. He said the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may hike rates in the second half of FY23 by up to 0.50 per cent.
'If the almost literally heart-stopping Suez block has any positive outcome, it is to be hoped that it will accelerate the setting up of a fab (perhaps Taiwanese) in India,' asserts Rajeev Srinivasan.
Don't exit from growth-style funds as they may benefit next from a shift in investor preference.
'We suggest investors with suitable risk appetite to consider allocating 40-50 per cent in large-caps, 25-30 per cent of funds in quality mid and small-caps and the rest in debt and high yield products.'
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee brainstormed the impact of any future shocks on the inflation trajectory and stressed monitoring the cumulative effect of monetary policy actions over the past one year, which is still unfolding, revealed minutes of the rate-setting panel released on Thursday. The minutes of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, also indicated it would be premature to declare an end to the monetary tightening cycle, which started in May 2022 to check high inflation following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. The central bank, which effected six back-to-back hikes in the key short-term lending rate (repo) since May 2022 to check high inflation, decided to take a pause early this month.
Foreign brokerage HSBC has said it expects the rupee to trade at 60-levels by December against the dollar even though risks on the domestic unit from both external and domestic fronts have increased.
The currency market won't care for our moans, groans, cries and sighs. The rupee will find its own level, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Global growth expectations have slumped to a five-month low.
As the Indian currency hovers around its lowest versus the US greenback, several smaller and mid-sized companies are expected to face rough weather as almost 44 per cent of the foreign loans taken by Indian companies remained unhedged. According to the data sourced from the Reserve Bank of India, Indian companies raised around $38.2 billion in the financial year ended in March. Of this, only 56 per cent of the loans are hedged while the rest of the foreign loans remain unhedged, thus risking the companies to forex volatility.
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